$700,000 Loan to $300M Win: How a Pro Gambler Uses Analytics to Beat Football | Matthew Benham
this is matthew benham a private secretive and highly analytical gambling mastermind that’s turned a 700 000 loan into a 300 million dollar profit with the help of his childhood passion brentford football club he’s also the founder of smart odds and the owner of matchbook bettingexchange but how did he do it and can it be repeated after all success usually leaves clues matthew bennem was born in 1968 attending his first football match 11 years later in 1979. this was the start of his love affair with brentford football club a full 27 years before most people had even heard of it he attended oxford university from 1986 to 1989 gaining the bachelor of arts degree in physics before starting a career in finance 12 years later
Tham khao mua san go cong nghiep gia re o dau ha noi .
he had already rocketed up the ranks becoming the vice president at the bank of america for benham though this achievement wasn’t nearly enough he left finance in 2001 switching careers to work for the infamous tony bloom at the newly founded premier bet presumably it’s seen a big opportunity as had bloom within benham his job was to create and develop predictive gambling models with the use of analytical data and quantitative analysis after a couple of years he left in 2003.
rumor has it there was a falling out between the two although neither have ever spoken about it since but this wasn’t the end of the line for benham he’d already cut his teeth in gambling and wasn’t going to go back to banking so he started smart odds in 2004 it’s now a rival to bloom stalin booking an impressive 12 million pound revenue per year the same style of statistical analysis that enabled him to create smart odds has assisted him in providing masses of vetting liquidity on various exchanges and becoming the owner of matchbook in 2011.
some believe the matchbook move was tactical allowing him to get larger bets matched his official net worth and just how much he’s made from betting is unknown although something he did back in 2007 gives us a clue even back then brentford football club fell on hard times in late 2006 so he put forward a 700 000 loan to help them through it it came with a caveat though if the loan wasn’t repaid in full matthew benham would be able to purchase the club in 2012 he was given that opportunity and he became the owner but his biggest stunt
was only just beginning what he did next earned him a lifelong nickname with comparisons being drawn to brad pitt’s film moneyball benham has said that he dislikes the comparison although if you’ve seen the film you can see why if you haven’t seen the film i’d recommend it it’s a great watch matthew moneyball benham purchased fc midtjylland to test his analytical modelling methods in july 2014. successful ideas were reused on brentford and the failures were binned and forgotten simply put he developed his own set of indicators based on analytical data that had been proven to work ignoring traditional decision-making methods
that were reliant on human opinion this was most evident when he sacked mark warburton and his assistant manager in 2015 after the brentford bees have been promoted to the championship they were replaced with analytical minds that focused on data individual wins and losses were considered less important and definable metrics like xg and average goal times were favored a quote from rasmus ankerson in the gardian newspaper gives us a unique insight into how benham operates when he asked benham if they were likely to get promoted from league one benham replied there’s a 42.3 percent chance that will go up key indicators that interest benham and the most are accurately definable and have a strong correlation with historical success as a team rather than individual talent or subjective opinion the most controversial move came in 2016 when brentford eliminated their youth academy system reliance solely on reserve players that were considered useless by other clubs benhams model needed a player to complete 35 games before an accurate data value could be assigned
this is because smaller samples provide less accurate results being a smaller club they had the flexibility and freedom to experiment something that larger richer clubs would not have allowed it was an advantage as the flexibility meant that they could find and test undervalued players without overspending so for example ollie watkins was bought for 2.3 million dollars and sold 36 million dollars whereas neil maupay was bought for 2.1 million and sold for 26 million that’s one hell of a markup and of course the results weren’t instant but like all good gamblers data scientists and finances benham knew it was about the long-term game allowing probability to do the heavy lifting in the process if you stack the odds in your favor you will eventually win and he did when brentford won the championship final completing their rise from division four to the premier league it’s made him and the club a whole lot richer too brentford football club is currently worth 300 million dollars and if they can stay up for two years 400 million dollars the longer they stay up the more their value grows and if past experience is anything to go by the more likely they are to win which poses the question how far will brentford bees go let me know what you think in the comments down below after smashing the like button it took a while to find specific details in this video so it’s much appreciated also please don’t forget to check out more useful content here in the end screen and the video description down below thanks for watching see you next time